ИСТИНА

Five scenarios were calculated to find what orchards/cropland price ratio will be an efficient incentive to bring 3 thousand ha of cropland back to orchards on a 20 year period in Azov district of Rostovskaya oblast'. For this the cost of action vs cost of inaction with the method proposed by von Braun et al. 2013 and Nkonya et al. 2014 was applied. In this method we used the establishment price of orchards at 983 USD per ha and maintenance price at 871 per ha (based on Rostov practical experiments). We also use this approach to calculate optimum TEV’s for orchards. The 4-th and 5-th scenarios TEV estimates are results of trial-and-error method with the lowest local TEV estimation for cropland (550 USD per ha) and the highest local TEV for cropland (3801 USD per ha) taken from the 1st and the 3rd scenarios respectively. The results show that TEV for cropland in Azov district of Rostov region could lay in diapason 550-3801 USD per ha. The diapason for orchards TEV would be 2070-8550 USD per ha. But only if the orchards / cropland TEV ratio is in the diapason 2.25-3.76, than it would be valuable in the sense of ecosystem provision. Only in this case the cost of inaction will be higher than cost of action, which will be a significant reason to recultivate 3 thousand hectares of land for orchards again. One of the main conclusions is that monetary ecosystem evaluation is consistent with uncertainty, and dependend from input data and types of ecosystem included in evaluation.