ИСТИНА

World-System approach gives an exciting view on past modernizations in Russia by showing the interaction between powerful but semi-peripherical Russian state and developed, financially and technologically advanced countries of the World Centre. Having lack of sources for independent development and being always under the military pressure, Russia made a very successful model of “overtaking” modernization. Many times in history, Russia mobilised its population and imported most advanced military and industrial technologies for strengthening its geopolitical status. Crucial shortcoming of such a model was connected with the fact that after each successful breakthrough a time of demobilisation began – with degrading of elites and decline of former modernization institutions, unsuitable for new challenges of development. The future modernization of Russia in the 21st century is likely to reproduce many features of past modernizations: the import of advanced technologies from the Centre (for example, hydrogenic energy, etc.), the high role of commodity exports, the state as a key development institution, etc. On the other hand, the possibilities of an authoritarian-mobilization scenario for Russia at the present stage are small (because of urbanization, decreasing demography, limited opportunities for civil coercion, etc.). To maintain the status of a developed power, Russia will have to look for new drivers and modernization mechanisms – probably, based on intensive development, highly-paid labour force and using capital instead of coerce for investments.