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Интеллектуальная Система Тематического Исследования НАукометрических данных |
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GEOSOCIAL PROCESS: CONCEPT AND LAWSтезисы доклада
- Авторы: Vikulin A.V., Vikulina M.A., Dolgaya A.A., Volfson I.F.
- Сборник: 7th Internaional Conference on Medical Geology August28-September 01, 2017, Moscow, Russia. Conference Materials
- Тезисы
- Год издания: 2017
- Место издания: Publihing House of I.M. Sechenov First MSMU Москва
- Первая страница: 84
- Аннотация: The paper presents data on the natural and social catastrophes, and their analysis, which confi rms the idea of Aristotle–Leibniz–Mach of the unity of the surrounding world – animate and inanimate nature and society. For the purpose of quantitative analysis of the problem “proving of the unity of the surrounding world” the list of the most powerful natural disasters and signifi cant social phenomena, including the N=2824 events that occurred during the last few thousand years of our history, was compiled for the fi rst time. Each event in the list is characterized with year, place, a brief description and a source of information about it. The totality of the data was classifi ed by three parameters: intensity of event, its type and scale (territorial) level. All events are divided into natural disasters (earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes and fl oods, droughts and climatic anomalies), social phenomena (wars and battles, revolutions and rebellions, genocides, epidemics, fi res) and others. Catastrophic events were classifi ed by logarithmic scale (J) that is based on socially important parameters: human casualties P and material losses Q ($). The maximum intensity of the events (of our time) corresponds to J=I (1.5·1013<Q≤1.5·1015, 1.5·108<P≤1.5·1010), and minimum intensity is J=III (1.5·109 <Q≤1.5·1011, 1.5·104<P≤1.5·106). The analysis of the different data sets, including selections of only natural disasters, only social phenomena and all the events together, was carried out. It is shown that all three data sets have identical properties: they are described by distribution laws with similar slopes of events repeatability plots ΔlgN/ΔJ≈-0.6, similar periods (260±50 years) and the ability to cluster in small time slots. Clusterability of events within the whole system appears as “attraction” and / or the interaction between natural disasters and social phenomena. Clusterability of natural disasters and social events and their relationship (interaction) made it possible to introduce the concept of geosocial process. The medical geology data, demonstrating the complex effect of geological processes and the products of their activities on people’s living social conditions are shown. Thus, if the medicine determines the level of society health, medical geology determines state of knowledge of the geosocial process. The data obtained allow to start modeling the geosocial process which takes into account the value of the real geosocial risk that can be used in the preparation of programs of the integrated regional development, primarily, such as Siberia and the Russian Far East. The work is supported by RFBR grant №16-37-00229
- Добавил в систему: Викулина Марина Александровна