Seismicity patterns before the 2021 Fin (Iran) doublet earthquakes using the region-time-length and time-to-failure methods

Ommi, S.; Smirnov, V.

Авторы: Ommi S., Smirnov VB
Журнал: Earthquake Science
Том: 37
Номер: 4
Год издания: 2024
Издательство: Seismological Society of China
Местоположение издательства: China
Первая страница: 324
Последняя страница: 336
DOI: 10.1016/j.eqs.2024.04.005
Аннотация: Knowledge regarding earthquake hazards and seismicity is crucial for crisis management, and the occurrence of foreshocks,seismic activity patterns, and spatiotemporal variations in seismic activity have been studied. Furthermore, the estimation of theregion-time-length (RTL) parameter has been proposed to detect seismic quiescence before the occurrence of a large earthquake.In addition, the time-to-failure method has been used to estimate the time occurrence of large earthquakes. Hence, in this study,to gain deeper insight into seismic activity in the southern Zagros region, we utilized the RTL algorithm to identify thequiescence and activation phases leading to the Fin doublet earthquakes. Temporal variations in the RTL parameter showed twosignificant anomalies. One corresponded to the occurrence time of the first earthquake (2017-12-12); the other anomaly wasassociated with the occurrence time of the second event (2021-11-14). Based on a negative value of the RTL parameter observedin the vicinity of the Fin epicenters (2021), seismic quiescence (a decrease in seismicity compared to the preceding backgroundrate) was identified. The spatial distribution of the RTL prognostic parameters confirms the appearance of seismic quiescencesurrounding the epicenter of the Fin doublet earthquakes (2021). The time-to-failure method was designed using precursory events that describe the acceleration of the seismic energy release before the mainshock. Using the time-to-failure method forthe earthquake catalog, it was possible to estimate both the magnitude and time of failure of the Fin doublet. Hence, the time-tofailuretechnique can be a useful supplementary method to the RTL algorithm for determining the characteristics of impendingearthquakes.
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Seismicity patterns before the 2021 Fin (Iran) doublet earthquakes using the region-time-length and time-to-failure methodsстатья

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