The Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Land Surface Warming (1850–2018) in Terms of Human and Natural Factors: Challenges of Inadequate Data

Willie, S.; Connolly, R.; Connolly, M.; Akasofu, S.; Baliunas, S.; Berglund, J.; Bianchini, A.; Briggs, W.M.; Butler, C.J.; Cionco, R.G.; Crok, M.; Elias, A.G.; Fedorov, V.M.; Gervais, F.; Harde, H.; Henry, G.W.; Hoyt, D.V.; Humlum, O.; Legates, D.R.; Lupo, A.R.; Maruyama, S.; Moore, P.; Ogurtsov, M.; ÓhAiseadha, C.; Oliveira, M.J.; Park, S.; Qiu, S.; Quinn, G.; Scafetta, N.; Solheim, J.; Steele, J.; Szarka, L.; Tanaka, H.L.; Taylor, M.K.; Vahrenholt, F.; Velasco Herreraю, V.M.; Zhang, W.

Авторы: Willie Soon, Connolly Ronan, Connolly Michael, Akasofu Syun-Ichi, Baliunas Sallie, Berglund Johan, Bianchini Antonio, Briggs William M., Butler C.J., Cionco Rodolfo Gustavo, Crok Marcel, Elias Ana G., Fedorov Valery M., Gervais François, Harde Hermann, Henry Gregory W., Hoyt Douglas V., Humlum Ole, Legates David R., Lupo Anthony R., Maruyama Shigenori, Moore Patrick, Ogurtsov Maxim, ÓhAiseadha Coilín, Oliveira Marcos J., Park Seok-Soon, Qiu Shican, Quinn Gerré, Scafetta Nicola, Solheim Jan-Erik, Steele Jim, Szarka László, Tanaka Hiroshi L., Taylor Mitchell K., Vahrenholt Fritz, Velasco Herreraю Víctor M., Zhang Weijia
Журнал: CLIMATE
Том: 11
Номер: 179
Год издания: 2023
Первая страница: 1
Последняя страница: 36
DOI: 10.3390/cli11090179
Аннотация: A statistical analysis was applied to Northern Hemisphere land surface temperatures(1850–2018) to try to identify the main drivers of the observed warming since the mid-19th century.Two different temperature estimates were considered—a rural and urban blend (that matches almostexactly with most current estimates) and a rural-only estimate. The rural and urban blend indicates along-term warming of 0.89 ◦C/century since 1850, while the rural-only indicates 0.55 ◦C/century.This contradicts a common assumption that current thermometer-based global temperature indicesare relatively unaffected by urban warming biases. Three main climatic drivers were considered,following the approaches adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’srecent 6th Assessment Report (AR6): two natural forcings (solar and volcanic) and the composite“all anthropogenic forcings combined” time series recommended by IPCC AR6. The volcanic timeseries was that recommended by IPCC AR6. Two alternative solar forcing datasets were contrasted.One was the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) time series that was recommended by IPCC AR6. The otherTSI time series was apparently overlooked by IPCC AR6. It was found that altering the temperatureestimate and/or the choice of solar forcing dataset resulted in very different conclusions as to theprimary drivers of the observed warming. Our analysis focused on the Northern Hemispheric landcomponent of global surface temperatures since this is the most data-rich component. It reveals thatimportant challenges remain for the broader detection and attribution problem of global warming:(1) urbanization bias remains a substantial problem for the global land temperature data; (2) it is stillunclear which (if any) of the many TSI time series in the literature are accurate estimates of past TSI;(3) the scientific community is not yet in a position to confidently establish whether the warmingsince 1850 is mostly human-caused, mostly natural, or some combination. Suggestions for how thesescientific challenges might be resolved are offered.
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