The mechanism of multidecadal variability in the Arctic and North Atlantic in climate model INMCM4статья
Статья опубликована в высокорейтинговом журнале
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Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 25 апреля 2017 г.
Аннотация:Data from a 500-year preindustrial control run of climate model INMCM4 show distinct
climate variability in the Arctic and North Atlantic with a period of 35–50 years. The
variability can be seen as anomalies of upper ocean density that appear in the Arctic and
propagate to the North Atlantic. The density gradient in a northeast–southwest direction
alternates with the density gradient in a northwest–southeast direction. A positive density
anomaly in the Arctic is associated with a positive salinity anomaly, a positive surface
temperature anomaly and a reduction of sea ice in the Barents and Kara Seas. The nature of
the variability is a vertical advection of density by thermal currents similar to that proposed in
Dijkstra et al (2008 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 366). The cycle of model variability shows that after
a negative anomaly of density in the northwest Atlantic, one should expect warming in the
Arctic in 5–10 years. The ensemble of decadal predictions with climate model INMCM4
starting from 1995 shows that warming in the western Arctic and especially in the Barents Sea
observed in 1996–2010 can be reproduced by eight of ten ensemble members. Arctic climate
predictability in this case is associated with a proposed mechanism of a 35–50 year North
Atlantic–Arctic oscillation.