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Consumer loan demand modeling of households in Russia under sanctionsстатья Тезисы
- Авторы: Shananin A., Trusov N.
- Сборник: Bioinformatics of genome regulation and structure/systems biology (BGRS/SB-2022): The Thirteenth International Multiconference (04–08 July, 2022, Novosibirsk, Russia); Abstracts
- Год издания: 2022
- Место издания: ICG SB RAS Novosibirsk
- Первая страница: 920
- Последняя страница: 920
- DOI: 10.18699/BGRS/SB-2022-000
- Аннотация: Consumer credit is an important instrument of the economic relations in Russia. It supports the effective demand of the population. The majority of borrowers in Russia have low real incomes, which leads to an increase in consumer lending. The current situation may turn into a financial pyramid; the borrowers in the mid-term will not be able to service their loans. This will give a rise to a banking system crisis. Nowadays, the problem of growing debt on consumer loans has sharply escalated. The sanctions are aimed at lowering the standard of living of households due to the crisis in the banking system, there is a sharp increase in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; the inflation expectations are significantly increasing.The modeling the economic behavior of households is based on the modified Ramsey model. The model is identified according to Russian statistics. A special software has been developed: with the help of the Household Budged Survey collected by the Federal State Statistics Service have been, the user can easily construct the classification, identification of the representative household in a certain group of regions, and build forecasts. In this work, the authors investigated the dynamics of the economic situation of borrowers in different regions of the Russian Federation, considering the sharp change in monetary policy and the growth of inflationary expectations. Various options for state support and monetary policy are considered in terms of their impact on the state of the consumer lending market.
- Добавил в систему: Трусов Николай Всеволодович