Relationship between Natural Climate Variability and Equilibrium Sensitivity in the Climate Model of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences to Increasing \cyrcharCYRS\cyrcharCYROстатья
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Аннотация:An analysis of data from the experiments shows that the three versions of the INM climate model exhibit no relationship between equilibrium sensitivity and the amplitude of natural climate variability, the indicator of which is the global mean surface temperature. This disagrees with conclusions from [3] obtained for the entire subset of CMIP5 models. On the other hand, changes arising from the representation of the ABL cloud, which have no large effect on equilibrium sensitivity, significantly influence the natural variability of global average temperature and, even more markedly, the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific associated with El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Consequently, the probable causes of the relationship between the amplitude of natural variability and equilibrium sensitivity, shown in a simple model [4], are not universal and call for further research.