Spatiotemporal Modeling of Coniferous Forests Dynamics along the Southern Edge of Their Range in the Central Russian Plain

Chernenkova, T.; Kotlov, I.; Belyaeva, N.; Suslova, E.

Авторы: Chernenkova Tatiana, Kotlov Ivan, Belyaeva Nadezhda, Suslova Elena
Журнал: Remote Sensing
Том: 13
Номер: 10
Год издания: 2021
Издательство: MDPI
Местоположение издательства: Basel, Switzerland
Первая страница: 1886
Последняя страница: 1886
DOI: 10.3390/rs13101886
Аннотация: Forests with predominance of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) and Scots pine(Pinus sylvestris L.) within the hemiboreal zone are considered as secondary communities formedunder long‐term human activity (logging, plowing, fires and silviculture). This study raises thequestion—how stable is current state of coniferous forests on the southern border of their naturaldistribution in the center of Eastern Europe using the example of the Moscow region (MR)? Theobject of the study are spruce and pine forests in different periods of Soviet and post‐Soviet historywithin the Moscow Region (MR). The current proportion of spruce forests is 21.7%, and theproportion of pine forests is 18.5% from total forest area according to our estimates. The directionand rate of forest succession were analyzed based on current composition of populations of themain forest‐forming species (spruce, pine, birch, aspen, oak, linden, and ash) based on groundbasedresearch materials collected in 2006–2019. This allowed to develop the dynamic model (DM)of forest communities with the participation of Norway spruce and Scots pine for several decades.Assessment of the spatial distribution of coniferous communities is based on field data and spatialmodeling using remote sensing data—Landsat 8 mosaic for 2020. In parallel, a retrospective model(RM) of the spatial‐temporal organization of spruce and pine forests for a 30‐year period wasdeveloped using two Landsat 5 mosaics. For this, nine different algorithms were tested and the bestone for this task was found—random forest. Geobotanical relevés were used as a training samplecombined with the 2006–2012 mosaic; the obtained spectral signatures were used for modelingbased on the 1984–1990 mosaic. Thus, two multi‐temporal spatial models of coniferous formationshave been developed. Detailed analysis of the structure of spruce and pine forests based on fielddata made it possible to track trends of successional dynamics for the first time, considering theorigin of communities and the ecological conditions of habitats. As a result, ideas about the viabilityof spruce and pine cenopopulations in different types of communities were formulated, whichmade possible to develop a dynamic model (DM) of changes in forest communities for future.Comparison of the areas and nature of changes in the spatial structure of coniferous formationsmade possible to develop the RM. Comparison of two different‐time models of succession dynamics(DM and RM) makes possible to correct the main trends in the transformation of coniferous forestsof natural and artificial origin under the existing regime of forestry. A set of features was identifiedthat indicates risk factors for coniferous forests in the region. A further decrease of the spruce andpine plantations and increase of the spruce‐small‐leaved and deciduous formations are expected inthe study area. The proportion of pine‐spruce forests does not exceed 3% of the area and can beconsidered as the most vulnerable type of forest.
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