"Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment"

Sayedi, S.S.; Abbott, B.; Thornton, B.; Frederick, J.; Vonk, J.; Overduin, P.; Schädel, C.; Schuur, E.; Bourbonnais, A.; Demidov, N.; Gavrilov, A.; HE, S.; Hugelius, G.; Jakobsson, M.; Jones, M.; Joung, D.; Kraev, G.; Macdonald, R.; McGuire, A.; Mu, C.; O'Regan, M.; Schreiner, K.; Stranne, C.; Pizhankova, E.; Vasiliev, A.; Westermann, S.; Zarnetske, J.; Zhang, T.; Ghandehari, M.; Baeumler, S.; Brown, B.; Frei, R.J.

Авторы: Sayedi Sayedeh Sara, Abbott Benjamin, Thornton Brett, Frederick Jennifer, Vonk J., Overduin P., Schädel Christina, Schuur Edward, Bourbonnais Annie, Demidov Nikita, Gavrilov Anatoly, HE Shengping, Hugelius Gustaf, Jakobsson Martin, Jones Miriam, Joung DongJoo, Kraev Gleb, Macdonald Robie, McGuire A., Mu Cuicui, O'Regan Matt, Schreiner Kathryn, Stranne Christian, Pizhankova Elena, Vasiliev Alexander, Westermann Sebastian, Zarnetske Jay, Zhang Tingjun, Ghandehari Mehran, Baeumler Sarah, Brown Brian, Frei Rebecca J.
Журнал: Environmental Research Letters
Том: 15
Год издания: 2020
Издательство: IOP Publishing
Местоположение издательства: [Bristol, UK], England
Первая страница: 1
Последняя страница: 13
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29
Аннотация: The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH4), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessmentwith 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity oforganic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ∼560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45GtC (10–110) in CH4. Current fluxes of CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr−1, respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 GtCO2-equivalent (CO2e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO2e by 2300 (45–590), with ∼30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.
Добавил в систему: Пижанкова Елена Ивановна

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