Аннотация:The purpose of the article is to assess the prospects of Russia’s social and regional development in the short term on the basis of a comparative analysis of budgetary and extrabudgetary financing of regions. The analysis tools are direct and indirect indicators of the development of social potential in a regional context, as well as neural network technologies. The authors developed a methodology for assessing the social potential of the regions of Russia using such aggregated characteristics as demography, the standard of living of the population; education; health care, social protection, etc. This method allows to objectively evaluate interregional “gaps” in Russia according to the social indicators under consideration. The results indicate the need to increase the attention of regional authorities, relevant ministries and departments to social policy, not only in quantitative but also qualitative characteristics. The analysis of indirect indicators showed that insufficient budget financing of the social sphere of the subjects of the Russian Federation is not the main cause of regional problems. It is important to ensure effective monitoring of budget spending, strengthen the anti-corruption struggle, attract the attention and interest of business and civil society to the development of social potential. The study notes that in regions with a predominance of small cities and rural settlements there is a significant deterioration in welfare, quality of life and social potential. Budget funds are mainly “concentrated” in large cities and agglomerations. This trend represents a threat to the national security of the country.