Statistical Model for Assessing the Formation of Climate-related Hazards Based on Climate Monitoring Dataстатья
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Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 2 сентября 2020 г.
Аннотация:A statistical model for the formation of climate-related hazards is proposed. The formation is described by several meteorological variables or applied climate indices characterizing a calendar year. Their values or data for their calculation are provided by climate monitoring systems. A climatic hazard arises when these variables or applied climate indices synchronously go beyond their safe ranges over several consecutive years. The corresponding minimum values for the number of such years are substantiated for different levels of the probability of occurrence of a climate-related hazard. The developed methodology was applied to obtain probabilistic estimates of the climatic range of the tick Ixodes ricinus (Linnaeus, 1758) being a vector of dangerous human diseases and its changes in 2001–2010 as compared to 1971–1980. The results are presented in the form of schematic maps.