Effect of Simultaneous Time Series Prediction with Various Horizons on Prediction Quality at the Example of Electron Flux in the Outer Radiation Belt of the Earthстатья

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Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 30 декабря 2016 г.

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[1] Myagkova I., Shiroky V., Dolenko S. Effect of simultaneous time series prediction with various horizons on prediction quality at the example of electron flux in the outer radiation belt of the earth // Lecture Notes in Computer Science. — 2016. — Vol. 9887. — P. 317–325. Prediction of the time series of relativistic electrons flux in the outer radiation belt of the Earth is a complicated task, due to complexity and nonlinearity of the system “solar wind - the Earth’s magnetosphere”. However, using artificial neural networks it is possible to predict the value of the electron flux several hours ahead, based on the hourly time series of electron flux, parameters of solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field. The purpose of this study was to check, which approach provided higher precision of prediction with various horizons from one to twelve hours: autonomous prediction for each of the 12 prediction horizons, or simultaneous prediction for several horizons. An explanation of the obtained results is suggested. [ DOI ]

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