Prediction of maximum daily relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit by adaptive modelsтезисы доклада

Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 9 марта 2017 г.

Работа с тезисами доклада


[1] Efitorov A., Myagkova I., Dolenko S. Prediction of maximum daily relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit by adaptive models // 11th International Conference “PROBLEMS OF GEOCOSMOS”. — St. Petersburg, 2016. — P. 46–47. This study presents 1-3 days prediction of the time series of daily max hourly values of relativistic electrons flux (E>2 MeV) in the outer radiation belt of the Earth. Our database of predictors covers the years 1996–2003. We obtained hourly averaged values of Dst, AE, Kp geomagnetic indexes, Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (in GSM coordinate system), solar wind flow velocity and proton density (N/cm3) from the Omniweb data base [1] and relativistic electron flux (> 2 MeV, > 0.6 MeV) from the GOES data base, GOES-8 spacecraft [2]. The phase-space for each physical component was reconstructed by timedelay vectors with their own different embedding dimensions, and all of these vectors were concatenated. Next, various adaptive models were trained on this multivariate dataset. A lot of models, such as simple autoregressive models, group method of data handling, artificial neural networks and others, were compared. The obtained results are analyzed and compared to the results of similar predictions by other authors [3]. 1. Omniweb database, hourly average valueshttp://cdaweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/misc/NotesO.html#OMNI2_H0_MRG1 HR 2. GOES-8 spacecraftdatahttp://cdaweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/misc/NotesG.html#G0_K0_EP8 3. Simms, L. E., M. J. Engebretson, V. Pilipenko, G. D. Reeves, and M.Clilverd (2016), Empirical predictive models of daily relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit: Multiple regression analysis, J. Geophys. Res. Space Physics, 121, 3181–3197, doi:10.1002/2016JA022414. *This study was supported by RFBR grant no. 14-01-00293-a.

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