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Spatiotemporal Variations in Gutenberg–Richter b-value Depending on the Depth and Lateral Position in the Earth’s Crust of the Garm Region, Tajikistanстатья
Информация о цитировании статьи получена из
Web of Science,
Scopus
Статья опубликована в журнале из списка Web of Science и/или Scopus
Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 17 июля 2020 г.
- Автор: Popandopoulo G.A.
- Журнал: Izvestiya. Physics of the Solid Earth
- Том: 56
- Номер: 3
- Год издания: 2020
- Издательство: Pleiades Publishing, Inc.
- Местоположение издательства: New York, USA
- Первая страница: 337
- Последняя страница: 356
- Оригинальные версии: ПРОСТРАНСТВЕННО-ВРЕМЕННЫЕ ВАРИАЦИИ ПАРАМЕТРА b-value ЗАКОНА ГУТЕНБЕРГА–РИХТЕРА В ЗАВИСИМОСТИ ОТ ГЛУБИНЫ И ЛАТЕРАЛЬНОГО ПОЛОЖЕНИЯ В ЗЕМНОЙ КОРЕ ГАРМСКОГО РАЙОНА ТАДЖИКИСТАНА
- DOI: 10.1134/S1069351320020081
- Аннотация: Spatiotemporal variations in the Gutenberg–Richter (GR) b-value and in the minimum magnitudeof a predicted earthquake (MPE) are studied in detail depending on the depth and lateral position of the selected sample of earthquakes in the Garm region, Tajikistan. The time variations in b-value estimated from the data on the earthquakes in the different depth intervals indicate that most of the “strong” events with M ≥ MPE were preceded by the significant time anomalies localized in the vicinity of the source depths of these earthquakes. The maximum amplitudes of these anomalies gravitate to the vicinity of the hypocenters of the strong earthquakes and decay with distance from the hypocenter. The observed time anomalies in the b-value, which have a shape of a positive bay, are not accidental, which is demonstrated by their sufficient statistical representativeness (18 events). It is concluded that based on the used approach it will be possible to estimate the source depth of a future strong earthquake. The estimate of earthquake prediction quality based on 38 “strong” earthquakes with M ≥ MPE that occurred in seven local regions during a 23-year observation period shows that in 84% of cases, the emergence of b-value anomalies is accompanied by the successful forecasts. At the same time, the overall probability estimate of a medium-term forecast of the “strong” earthquakes with false alarms and missed events are taken into account is 71%. Meanwhile, the forecasting quality of the strong earthquakes substantially increases if the b-value time variations are monitored separately in thedifferent depth intervals of the Earth’s crust. It is shown that the parameter of the minimum MPE estimated from the rightmost part of the linear segment of the GR relationship is a characteristic of the structural blocks of the Earth’s crust and varies both across the area and along with the depth. It is hypothesized that the front of the deformation waves emerging on certain time intervals in a number of the local regions of the sample has probably been detected. The supposed deformation waves propagate with the velocities of 40–50 km/yr with their front moving NE to SE. The results of the study can be used for medium-term forecasting of the earthquakes with M ≥ MPE, for estimating the depth of the expected earthquake, and for overall seismic hazard assessment in the seismically active regions.
- Добавил в систему: Попандопуло Георгий Анатольевич