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Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 28 мая 2015 г.
Аннотация:The structure of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the Niño 3 region in the equatorial Pacific is studied in detail for justification of their use as a criterion of El Niño and La Niña detection in a continuous SSTA series for 1948-1997. It is shown that the most realistic threshold SSTA value for El Niño detection in the Niño 3 region is SSTA ≥ 0.5°C and for La Niña it is SSTA ≤ -0.5°C. The proposed method of detection of these phenomena made it possible to detect 13 El Niño and 18 La Niña events in the SSTA series in the Niño 3 region from 1948 to 1997. It is shown that the distribution of SST anomalies in the study region does not correspond to normal distribution. Therefore, the empirical probability of La Niña occurence is 1.7 times greater than that for El Niño, although it could be only a property of the sample used in this study. Relationships are found between both events and global atmospheric circulation features.