SIMULATION MODELING OF POPULATION-DENSITY DYNAMICS OF INSECTIVOROUS FOREST PASSERINE BIRDS - A BIOENERGETIC APPROACHстатья
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Аннотация:Conceptual and mathematical approaches to a population modelling are elaborated on the basis of long-term field and experomental studies of Parus species (Aves). The model provides an adequate seasonal dynamics of body mass, fat reserves, and components of an individual daily energy budget on a time step of 1 day. When simulating the seasonal and long-term density and age distribution of birds, the highest accuracy was obtained in nonlinear matrix model (being a development of Leslie model), with variable coefficients of survival and fecundity. The latters were used as functions of body mass or population density. The standard simulation error value does not exceed 16,7 per cent on a time step of 10 days. There is a function of food intake among new analytical subordinations which depends on invertebrate biomass density in the canopy. Investigation of the model shows the essential regulative role of density-dependent survival within all stages of the life cycle. The behaviour of the model is determined mainly by invertebrate biomass in winter and spring, as well as by foraging success during the first 3 months of the fledgling life. The latter is considered to possible support of Lack's (1954) hypothesis. The daily energy budget of an individual tends to be the most stable among the variables tested. The model indicates that P. ater michailowskii population consumes 3 kg dry mass per ha of forest invertebrates, which production requests about 1 per cent of terrestrial net primary production.