Earthquake forecasting: statistics and informationстатья

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[1] Gertsik, Kelbert, Krichevets. Earthquake forecasting: statistics and information // Annals of Geophysics. — 2015. — Vol. 58, no. 6. The paper presents a decision rule forming a mathematical basis of earth- quake forecasting problem. We develop an axiomatic approach to earth- quake forecasting in terms of multicomponent random fields on a lattice. This approach provides a method for constructing point estimates and confidence intervals for conditional probabilities of strong earthquakes under conditions on the levels of precursors. Also, it provides an approach for setting a multilevel alarm system and hypothesis testing for binary alarms. We use a method of comparison for different algorithms of earth- quake forecasts in terms of the increase of Shannon information. ‘Fore- casting’ (the calculation of the probabilities) and ‘prediction’ (the alarm declaring) of earthquakes are equivalent in this approach. [ DOI ]

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