## Earthquake forecasting: statistics and informationстатья

Статья опубликована в журнале из списка Web of Science и/или Scopus
• Авторы:
• Журнал: Annals of Geophysics
• Том: 58
• Номер: 6
• Год издания: 2015
• Издательство: Editrice Compositori srl
• Местоположение издательства: Italy
• DOI: 10.4401/ag-6816
• Аннотация: The paper presents a decision rule forming a mathematical basis of earth- quake forecasting problem. We develop an axiomatic approach to earth- quake forecasting in terms of multicomponent random ﬁelds on a lattice. This approach provides a method for constructing point estimates and conﬁdence intervals for conditional probabilities of strong earthquakes under conditions on the levels of precursors. Also, it provides an approach for setting a multilevel alarm system and hypothesis testing for binary alarms. We use a method of comparison for different algorithms of earth- quake forecasts in terms of the increase of Shannon information. ‘Fore- casting’ (the calculation of the probabilities) and ‘prediction’ (the alarm declaring) of earthquakes are equivalent in this approach.
• Добавил в систему: Кричевец Анатолий Николаевич

### Работа с статьей

 [1] Gertsik, Kelbert, Krichevets. Earthquake forecasting: statistics and information // Annals of Geophysics. — 2015. — Vol. 58, no. 6. The paper presents a decision rule forming a mathematical basis of earth- quake forecasting problem. We develop an axiomatic approach to earth- quake forecasting in terms of multicomponent random ﬁelds on a lattice. This approach provides a method for constructing point estimates and conﬁdence intervals for conditional probabilities of strong earthquakes under conditions on the levels of precursors. Also, it provides an approach for setting a multilevel alarm system and hypothesis testing for binary alarms. We use a method of comparison for different algorithms of earth- quake forecasts in terms of the increase of Shannon information. ‘Fore- casting’ (the calculation of the probabilities) and ‘prediction’ (the alarm declaring) of earthquakes are equivalent in this approach. [ DOI ]