МЕТОД ДДП И СТАВКИ ДИСКОНТИРОВАНИЯ: ВЗГЛЯД СО СТОРОНЫстатья

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[1] Смоляк С. А. МЕТОД ДДП И СТАВКИ ДИСКОНТИРОВАНИЯ: ВЗГЛЯД СО СТОРОНЫ // Вопросы оценки. — 2007. — № 2. — С. 39–42. This note by Prof. S. Smolyak - one of the most pre-eminent and deserving valuation theoreticians in Russian academic circles - distills the spectacular scope of thinking on discount rates scattered across his decades-long research and model-building which has found outlet in many books and guidance notes on the valuation of investment projects and property authored or co-authored by S. Smolyak. The focus of this note is the issue of discount rates, as seen by one who is deeply engaged in the assessment of key investment projects. Prof. Smolyak is renowned for perfecting ways of discounting initially attributable to Lintner (1965), whereby discount rates are represented by risk-free rates and all risks are incorporated into appropriate adjustments to cash-flows. Apart from discussions on what those adjustments should be attached to (the presented analysis of nominal-vs.-real and best-estimates vs. expected cash flows is drawn with balanced and fair brush), the Paper outlines strategies for elaborating those adjustments and it is said that we can take a leaf from the established practice of provision-making and how it is currently interwoven with cash flows projections in the technical assessments of investment projects. The article also presents outlines of convincing explanation as to why discount rates for valuing investment projects can't be based on the CAPM paradigm, nor on entity-specific WACC derivations: since all investment projects are tailored to the needs of particular investors and reflect their risk-hedging mechanisms and unique interactions with other related parties (such as creditors), the 'firm' becomes a too widely-drawn and vague reference point to form the basis for assessment of investment projects (especially if an investment project implies the creation of a separate entity to carry it out), but we can approach the issue from the angle of a particular equity- or debt-interest holder or any other interested parties in the project (such as the state). Therefore, efficiency measures (such as NPV) would turn out to be variable and dependent on a specific party engaged in the project, as would the perceptions of risks. Elsewhere Prof. S. Smolyak has elaborated the presentation and modeling of discount rates for such parties and has produced multiple mathematical formalizations which are gaining favor among their users. Thanks to his work we are coming to realize in what crucial ways the theory of valuing and assessing the efficiency of investment projects (and, ultimately, investment worth) is distinct from the theory of market valuation.

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