The processes preceding strong earthquakes in some regions of Middle Asiaстатья
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Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 10 августа 2018 г.
Аннотация:Forerunners of earthquakes are sought by various methods in anomalies of different geophysical fields for long-range, short-range and operational forecasting of earthquakes. The reliability of prediction, made on the basis of noted anomalies of some parameters, is estimated. An example of prediction of place, energy and time of the earthquake as well as the estimation of the error of prediction is given using anomalies of the ratios of longitudinal and shear wave velocities.
INTRODUCTION
The developing methods of earthquake prediction proceed from the'assumption that
some periods of “preparation” preceed any strong earthquake. Variations of different
geophysical fields appear as a result of variations of geotectonic stress field during this
period. In this case the nature of forces causing the change of geotectonic stresses is not
yet known. Due to supposed connection of tectonic movements with seismicity, a region
of forecasting study should be well investigated from the geological point of view.
“Forerunners” of earthquakes are sought in anomalies (relative to average background
values) of seismic field, natural and artificial electric field, in variations of slow rates of movement of the earth’s crust and of a number of other characteristics, in particular,
geochemical ones. As all background values of geophysical fields are subject to
considerable fluctuation, the problem of forecasting is methodically reduced to the
separation of the signal from the background of noises, with all the difficulties this entails. The problem’s complexity increases due to the fact that earthquake forecasting should be given with a large degree of reliability, otherwise it will be simply harmful.