ИСТИНА

Northern territory is 68% of the Russian territory. In the north and east of Russia the land area of Northern territory is more than 70% of all territories, and in the Far Eastern – 94%. For Northern territories the main factor of their sustainable development is the natural and climatic discomfort of the life conditions. Investigation of natural and climate conditions in the Northern and Arctic areas of Russia was conducted using the method of regionalization of Russian Federation territory by environment conditions of human life. The regionalization is made on the base of influence degree of the main natural factors: colds, heat, moisture, altitude, catastrophic events (hydrometeorological, seismic, geocriological). Natural conditions of human life are characterized by integral points. Four zones with unfavorable or favorable influence on the health, living, and labor activity of the population are determined: I – absolutely unfavorable; II – very unfavorable; III – unfavorable; IV – conditionally unfavorable. We have analyzed nature-climatic conditions of human life in the second part of the 20th century and their changes in the middle of 21st century. The results of numerical experiments on global climate model of Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM) of RAS, regional climate model of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO) were used. The most fast changeable climatic factors (thermal, cold and wind) were investigated on the basis of the observation meteorological data and results of the model forecast. The modification of boundaries of the nature-climatic discomfort zones in the global warming conditions is shown for the Northern and Arctic areas of Russian territory and in larger scale for mountain areas. The climate warming in the middle of the XXI century will cause the considerable improving of the natural and climate conditions in Russia. The greatest changes of boundaries of zones of discomfort are expected in the European territory of Russia and in Western Siberia. The least changes will be observed on the coast of the Sea of Okhotsk, in the centre of Yakutia and on Far East. As a result of the expected warming, in the Far Eastern area with unfavorable natural conditions of life is almost unchanged. But redistribution of the areas with extreme conditions into less extreme is possible. For the mountain regions of Russian Arctic zone worsening of nature-climatic conditions mainly relates to azonal factor impact – elevation, avalanche and mudflow danger and glacier activity. Climate warming will lead to softening nature conditions for humans both for the whole Subarctic and for mountain regions within it. In the mountains changes will be slower than on plains. Researches were supported by Russian Science Foundation (RSF) grant № 16-17-10236.