ИСТИНА

The conditions for the formation and development of the Novorossiysk bora in the 21st century were studied using the CMIP5 experiment data for the INMCM4 model of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. For the forecast the most extreme scenario RCP8.5 with respect to the change in the radiation balance was chosen. It was found out that with this development of events in the 21st century compared to the climate of the second half of the 20th century, the total frequency of bora will not increase, but the bora will increase in the synoptic scenario of the Arctic class. As it was shown earlier Semenov at al, 2013) under such conditions, in 67% of cases, a monsoonal bora regime is formed according to the genetic classification. This regime characterizes by the greatest horizontal temperature contrast in the region of the northern coast of the Black Sea (the temperature decreases to -10...- 20°C, and the wind speed can reach 40 m/s).