ИСТИНА

The process of the Arab Awakening and all new risks, dangers and threats injected by it led to some reduction of interest of the international community towards the Middle East Peace Process. However there are several independent of the Arab Awakening causes for this marginalization and stagnation. First of all the situation in Israel and in the Palestinian Authority today is quite more difficult than several years ago: today every kind of maximum Israel can propose to the Palestinians is less than a minimum acceptable to them. The gap between two sides of the conflict is getting wider and wider and it’s unknown if they could cross it or no in the actual situation. In fact the Neyanyahu’s administration is the most stable of all the Israelites administrations of the last years in despite of its rigid positions. On the other hand Fatah and HAMAS rivalry doesn’t lead to any positive result. Another important circumstance is the changing of global environment and a real failure of the Quartet activity. Three of its participants cannot (EU and UN) or don’t want (USA) to participate actively in the peace process. As to the fourth actor today, Russia has got only very limited opportunities and modest interests in the Middle East. In fact Russians activity is dictated by some domestic purposes of its political regime and by the intention to the instrumentalization of the peace process to reach some goals on other tracks of its foreign policy. All these reasons and also all the processes of Arab Awakening lead to the growing influence of the regional actors and of several new global actors too (mainly BRICS). What can we do in these circumstances? On the bilateral level. We need in the obvious perception that nothing is possible without a) a sovereignty of both sides of the conflict and their capacity to realize an agreement; b) their good will to the peace and perception that the conflict situation hinders their existence. It means that we need in a) good governance for the Palestinian Authority, increase in efficiency of its political and administrative system, establishing a balance between Palestinian political actors; b) a common enemy for Israel and Arab regimes – common enemy is the best possibility to a good will for peace in the situation when the conflict became “le mode de vie” for both sides and central element of their political lives. Given the situation in Syria it’s obvious that the jihadists could be this common enemies. 2. On the regional level. We should add to the peace process a regional track which can become a leading one in future. The final goal of it is the creating of a system of regional security. Saudi Arabia and Egypt can become key actors in this system. On the global level. BRICS can play an important part in the process as a collective member of quartet or as a few members; but we should understand that the global level isn’t the main one today. All in all fight against the chaos and entropy should become the best motivation for the peace process.