ИСТИНА

The subject of the lecture is the current understanding of the impact of climate change on threats to water security in the world and particularly in Russia. The lecture focuses on the issues related to changes in physical water scarcity as well as in frequency and magnitude of disastrous floods. Economic or social phenomena affecting water security are not discussed. The lecture consists of four parts. The first one briefly discusses the current thinking on the mechanisms of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on water resources and flood risk. The second part discusses the methodological aspects of constructing assessments of the ongoing changes in the river regimes and reviews some of the assessments of water resources change and the maximal river runoff in the world and, particularly in Russia. The third part is devoted to the global and regional projections of the future changes in the river runoff regimes in the 21th century and discusses the methodological challenges of constructing such projections. Finally, the fourth part assesses socio-economic consequences of the current and projected hydrological changes and their influence on water security.