ИСТИНА

The Moscow region is located in the Central Russian Plain on the edge of the hemiboreal and broad-leaved zones. Felling is prohibited there, and mature coniferous forests can be found. The current proportion of spruce forests is 21.7% of the total forest area, according to our estimates. According to the Federal Forestry Agency (2019), the proportion of plantations in the Moscow region is about 20% of the total forest cover and 60-80% of the coniferous forests. The purpose of the study is to assess the current state and dynamics of coniferous and mixed forests in the Moscow region under the existing forest management regime. The composition of coniferous forests is complex (combinations of spruce with birch, aspen, pine and broad-leaved species) and is similar to the composition of the zonal primary coniferous-deciduous forests. The share of plantations is high (mainly monodominant spruce forests). The species composition of the herb-shrub and moss layers is represented by the full spectrum of transitions from boreal to nemoral types. Aspects of the development and composition of coniferous forests at different stages of reforestation are shown. It has been established that mature and overmature stands (over 80 years old) are similar in structure and species composition to natural forests. Assessment of the spatial distribution of coniferous communities is based on field data and spa-tial modelling using remote sensing data – Landsat 8 mosaic for 2020. A simulation model of successive dynamics and a probabilistic forecast of the transformation of forests with the partici-pation of spruce took into account the origin and landscape conditions. A set of features was identified that indicates risk factors for coniferous forests in the region. A further decrease of the spruce plantations and increase of the spruce-small-leaved and deciduous formations are ex-pected in the study area.