ИСТИНА

The parameters of the concentration of seismogenic faults in the source zone of one of the strong Kamchatka earthquakes and the concentration parameters of microcracks and acoustic signals in laboratory steel specimens before fracture are estimated. The basis for calculating the parameters was the relation proposed in (Zhurkov, Kuksenko, Slutsker, 1969), which relates the number and length of microcracks in laboratory specimens made of polymer materials. The parameter of the concentration of seismogenic faults Ksf, used in seismology to predict strong earthquakes (Zavyalov, 2006), was estimated based on data on the number and energy of seismic events occurring in the rocks. To estimate the parameters of microcracks concentration (Kc) in laboratory specimens and acoustic events (Kae) accompanying the fracture process, we used data from direct observation of microcrack patterns and analysis of acoustic emission events recorded during deformation of metal specimens before fracture (Botvina, Tyutin, Zharkova, 2006). The time dependences of the concentration parameters corresponding to a power-law relation with exponents ≃0.5-0.7 for the dependences Ksf and Kae and ≃2, for the time dependences of Kc, plotted using the patterns of microcracks in metal specimens of two steel, are obtained. The obtained time dependences can be used to analyze and model the fracture process at an early stage of damage development, as well as to predict a critical event - specimen fracture or an earthquake. This work was supported by the State Assignment Programs of the Baikov Institute of Metallurgy and Materials Science, Russian Academy of Sciences, project No. 075-00947-20-00 and the Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences No. 0144-2019-0010.