ИСТИНА

The report considers the evolution of ideas about the concentration criteria for the destruction of solids, proposed by Academician S.N. Zhurkov in the mid-60s of the last century, in connection with its use in the physics of the origin of earthquake source to forecasting of natural and man-made disasters (earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, rock bursts). The results of long-term testing of the Ksr seismogenic rupture density parameter (analogue of fracture concentration criterion) in different seismic active regions of the world as a precursor of earthquakes are analyzed and data on its predictive efficiency in comparison with other precursor parameters are given. The dependence of Ksr value on the fractal dimension of earthquake sources distribution (acoustic events) is shown. Examples of the use of the Ksr parameter to predict rock bursts and volcanic eruptions are given. The work was financially supported by the programs of state assignments of the O.Yu. Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Russian Foundation for Basic Research grant № 18-05-00096.