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Water deficit estimation in connection with climate change in the Fergana valley,Central Asia доклад на конференции
- Авторы: Elena Milanova, Andrey Kirilenko, Nikolay Dronin, Aleksandra Nikanorova
- Международная Конференция : 9th IGU Conference on Land Use changes, climate extremes and disaster risk reduction
- Даты проведения конференции: 23-25 марта 2016
- Дата доклада: 23 марта 2016
- Тип доклада: Устный
- Докладчик: не указан
- Место проведения: Delhi, India
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Аннотация доклада:
We estimated the climate-related changes in irrigational water demand in the Fergana Valley in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s using future weather patterns generated with five global circulation models (GCMs) run under the A1FI, A2 and B1 SRES scenarios. Considerably higher temperatures and a moderate change in precipitation lead to increasing potential evapotranspiration (PET), which nearly doubles irrigation water demand by the 2080s. In turn, the area under persistent water deficit is increasing from current 12% to 18.3% by 2020s, 27% by 2050s, and to 38.2% by 2080s.
- Добавил в систему: Дронин Николай Михайлович