ИСТИНА

Abstract. In the last years (2011-2017) Russia established herself as the world’s leading supplier of grain. These remarkable achievements have raised concerns in foreign countries of possible Russian domination of global markets. Importers and exporters would like to know whether Russia’s current success is ephemeral or is evidence that the country is tapping its latent production potential. Within the context of Russian agricultural history the success is actually surprising and huge. It happened after many decades of the fatal dependence of the USSR on grain import. Most experts point out reduction in grain domestic consumption as the main reason for rising grain export. It is true but partial. Current high growth rates of grain production have never before been recorded in the history of Russian agriculture. Speculatively, one might attribute it to innovative, revolutionary agro-technology applied countrywide at record pace or to climate shifts more favorable to agriculture than anticipated by numerous Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for Russia. We present new analysis suggesting that shifts in weather patterns or climate are the more likely source of the recent successes of Russian agriculture. We used previously elaborated statistical models “yields-weather” in all important grain producing provinces of Russia for the 1958–2010. The same set of regression models were applied to the modern period 2010–2017, using 34 provinces, the major grain producers in Russia. Analysis shows that at least in three regions (the Black Earth, Lower Volga, and Western Siberia) current grain yields clearly diverge from simulated ones indicating a shift in historical weather patterns. Most Russian agricultural experts, however, are not inclined to see current weather dynamic as the result of climate change. Nor do they see weather behind the successes of 2017. Meantime, no evidence of revolutionary agro-technology applied countrywide has been observed in Russia in the years of grain production boom. Quite the opposite, there has been substantial increases in the cost of inputs, including seeds, chemicals, fuel, and lubricants. While crop production was still profitable in 2016 and 2017, farmers’ returns were lower than in previous years. It is also instructive that western analytical reports still conclude their annual reviews with the observation that the size of Russian grain harvests depended primarily on weather.