ИСТИНА

The changes in agriculture water deficit is evaluated under scenarios of change in climate and irrigation conditions in Fergana Valley, Central Asia. The main driver of economic activity in Fergana valley is the cotton growing industry which consumes large volume of water. Growing population drives irrigation water demand with plans to increase the irrigated areas by 10-15%. Climate change may alter projected water demand increase in valley. The climate related changes in irrigational water demand in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s were estimated using future weather patterns generated by five GCMs. The GIS of distribution to agricultural lands of the Fergana Valley was compiled and the areas of water deficit in these years were defined. Adaptation capacity of Fergana Valley is based on implementation of irrigation sci scheme with keeping in mind soils ' quality, ground water level, as well as correction of water consumption norms for different crops and change of crops' composition in favor of the winter horticulture plantations and winter cereals.