ИСТИНА

The potential of new ICT-products absorption in Russia, primarily on an example of mobile communication, is explored in the article. The purpose was to classify regions by rate of diffusion, using several models, including Bass model. Active subscriptions per 100 people were used as a proper indicator. Five clusters were identified, corresponding to stages of diffusion by E. Rogers: innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority and laggards. There are four stages of mobile communication diffusion, according to the spatial diffusion theory of T. Hagerstrand, which are determined by several factors. The most influential factors are income, price of services and competition. To assess the innovativeness of regional communities, or their ability to absorb new products, cluster analysis, based on the threshold values of Bass model parameters, was performed. The results were similar to those obtained earlier. Both previous methods of classification can be biased regarding special features of mobile communication diffusion. That is why, in the last stage an integral index of innovativeness was introduced, including rate of diffusion for several ICT-products. The analysis proved that hierarchical model of diffusion from the main centres to secondary prevails in Russia. Factor of geographical location also play a crucial role. At the initial stage, many regions have a similar level of saturation, but further absorption stops in the northern regions due to the low population density, and in the southern regions because of agricultural specialization and high institutional barriers. The research showed the significant difference in the rate of diffusion between Russian regions. Five stable clusters were identified.