On the dynamics of the world demographic transition and financial-economic crises forecastsстатья
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Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 18 июля 2013 г.
Аннотация:The article considers dynamic processes involving non-linear
power-law behavior in such apparently diverse spheres, as demographic
dynamics and dynamics of prices of highly liquid commodities such
as oil and gold. All the respective variables exhibit features of explosive
growth containing precursors indicating approaching phase
transitions/catastrophes/crises. The first part of the article analyzes
mathematical models of demographic dynamics that describe various
scenarios of demographic development in the post-phase-transition period,
including a model that takes the limitedness of the Earth carrying
capacity into account. This model points to a critical point in the early
2050s, when the world population, after reaching its maximum value
may decrease afterward stabilizing then at a certain stationary level.
The article presents an analysis of the influence of the demographic
transition (directly connected with the hyperexponential growth of the
world population) on the global socioeconomic and geopolitical development.
The second part deals with the phenomenon of explosive
growth of prices of such highly liquid commodities as oil and gold. It
is demonstrated that at present the respective processes could be regarded
as precursors of waves of the global financial-economic crisis
that will demand the change of the current global economic and political
system. It is also shown that the moments of the start of the
first and second waves of the current global crisis could have been
forecasted with a model of accelerating log-periodic fluctuations superimposed
over a power-law trend with a finite singularity developed by
Didier Sornette and collaborators. With respect to the oil prices, it is
shown that it was possible to forecast the 2008 crisis with a precision
up to a month already in 2007. The gold price dynamics was used to
calculate the possible time of the start of the second wave of the global
crisis (July–August 2011); note that this forecast has turned out to be
quite correct.