ИСТИНА

Storm waves are one of hazardous phenomena for coastal areas. Storm activity is initiated mainly by wind, which is in its turn a product of atmosphere pressure field. The effect of climate change in atmosphere circulation patterns on storm activity is investigated for the European Russia seas (the Black Sea, the Caspian Sea, the Sea of Azov, the Baltic Sea, the White Sea). The calendar of storm events for every sea has been derived from storm waves simulations (SWAN – Simulating WAves Nearshore) with wave height of 4 m and more (1948-2010). For this set of storm dates, fields of daily atmospheric SLP (sea level pressure) have been taken from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (area 30–80N, 0–90E) and subjected to EOF decomposition. First three EOF of SLP (about 70% of variance) have been classified (cluster analysis of k-means) for storm calendar for every sea. These circulation type classifications have been used to assess possible changes of the frequency of storm weather patterns in the future. For this purpose climate simulations data for 1961-2000, 2046-2065 (CMIP3, A2 scenario, global atmosphere and ocean circulation model MPI-ECHAM5) have been used. Investigation show that frequency of storm SLP types simulated by MPI-ECHAM5 is in a good agreement with reanalysis data. Both reanalysis and simulations show correlated changes of storm SLP frequency in 1960-2000. Results of the weather pattern analysis of MPI-ECHAM5 climate simulation for 2046-2065 allow to speak about possible changes of storm regime in the future. Changes are expected both in redistribution of frequency between different classes of storm SLP fields and in number of storm events. The methodology of such detection and forecast of hazards frequency has been proven to be a useful tool to narrow down the lack of knowledge and therefore is a subject to ongoing improvements